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1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance

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Forecasting California's Earthquakes

U.S. Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), and California Geological Survey (CGS)

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Forecasting California's Earthquakes. What Can We Expect in the Next 30 Years? A new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%. Such a quake is most likely to occur in the the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California's future.


April 14, 2008 at 10 a.m.


USGS, Menlo Park, California


New study shows the probabilities are slightly up in the San Francisco Bay Area, particularly on the Hayward Fault.


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